College FootBall power Ratings
September 28

This would have been a terrific betting weekend if I hadn’t gotten absolutely clobbered during the early NFL kickoffs on Sunday. That window was brutal, but the weekend still finished in good shape thanks to late wins by Minnesota and Denver — and I’m still not entirely sure how the Broncos got there.

Saturday was nearly perfect. The only real frustration came from two unders that somehow went down on the final play of the game in Purdue–Notre Dame and Iowa–Michigan. Those are the kinds of losses that make you stare at the screen for a few extra seconds before moving on.

The highlight was Florida, which we featured prominently at Bet Thrive. The Gators were a rocking-chair winner and perfectly illustrated why situational handicapping matters.

But once again, the WNBA was the crown jewel of the weekend. Sunday was perfect, and our model continues to be unbelievably good to us. A little hint of what may be coming next: we are considerably higher on the Atlanta Dream than the current market is.

Now we move into one of the best sports-betting weeks of the year.

The baseball playoffs begin. The WNBA postseason continues. We have a full college football slate followed by another NFL weekend.

The NFL gets started Thursday night with Pittsburgh -2.5 at Cleveland, total 38.5, and there’s a very good chance we’ll be involved with the Browns. The only matchup of undefeated teams features Kansas City visiting Las Vegas. Who in their right mind had the Raiders starting 3-0? They’re currently catching 5.5 points against the Chiefs.

College football gives us Alabama -6 at Mississippi State and Ohio State -13.5 at Iowa among the headline games. Notre Dame, still No. 1 in our power ratings, travels to North Carolina laying 21.5.

The MLB Wild Card Series prices currently look like this:

  • Braves -130 vs. Phillies

  • Astros -150 vs. White Sox

  • Yankees -170 vs. Red Sox

  • Padres -125 vs. Cubs

And finally, the WNBA has to fix its playoff format.

A best-of-three opening round using a 1-1-1 format is beyond silly. It puts too much weight on a tiny sample and does not adequately reward the teams that earned the highest seeds over the course of the regular season.

If the league wants to keep a short opening round, then expand the field and give the top teams a bye. Otherwise, make the first round best-of-five.

The postseason should do a better job rewarding what teams accomplished over the entire season.

September 28, 2026