Survivor Sweat Changes the Game

The College Football Playoff bubble is going to be a mess.

There will be endless arguments over who belongs in the 12-team field, which conference deserves more bids, who has the best résumé, and which team got robbed. The bubble is tight, crowded, and guaranteed to create controversy.

But once you get past all of that, I think the national championship picture is much simpler.

There are five teams capable of winning it all:

Notre Dame. Georgia. Miami. Ohio State. Alabama.

That’s it.

Plenty of teams can complain about being left off that list, and some of them will have legitimate cases. But there is a major difference between being good enough to make the playoff and being good enough to win three or four high-level postseason games against elite competition.

Indiana is the obvious example. The Hoosiers haven’t lost in two years, which is remarkable, but I see a noticeable difference between this year’s team and last season’s version. They are still very good. I just don’t believe they are on the same level as the true championship teams, and I don’t like their chances against Ohio State this weekend.

UCLA is another terrific story. The Bruins look excellent and have a real opportunity to finish the regular season undefeated.

That doesn’t make them a true national championship contender.

If UCLA draws one of the five teams above in the playoff, I don’t see them staying within 10 points.

That may sound harsh, but this is where power ratings matter more than résumés.

Twenty teams may have an argument that they deserve a place in the bracket. Twelve will be invited. Only five are good enough to finish the job.

NCAAF Has Five Real Contenders
10.14.26