Ole Miss Faces Situational Challenge and the Greatly Improved Florida Gators

Los Angeles Chargers (50.5) at Buffalo Bills (-7)
The buy-low, sell-high philosophy points toward Los Angeles. Buffalo has looked tremendous, Josh Allen looks like an MVP candidate, and the offense is operating at an elite level. That is exactly why the number is getting expensive. Lean: Chargers

Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns (42.5)
Bryce Young and the Carolina offense are starting to look legitimate, although the receiving corps is a little banged up. Deshaun Watson is also coming off his best performance as a Brown. I lean Cleveland, but I want the full field goal. Lean: Browns +3 or better

New York Jets (48.5) at Detroit Lions (-6.5)
I don’t feel comfortable laying this many points with the Detroit defense. It would be Jets or nothing for me, and right now it’s nothing. Lean: None

Houston Texans (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts (42.5)
Both teams desperately need this game, but I see a pretty clear difference between them. Houston is good. Indianapolis is average. Lean: Texans

Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) at Miami Dolphins (45.5)
I don’t like laying double digits on the road in this league, but I also want absolutely nothing to do with Miami right now. The Dolphins look like the worst team in football. Lean: None

Tennessee Titans (38.5) at New York Giants (-2.5)
The under looks tempting, but betting an under in a Jameis Winston game is a recipe for illness. There are easier ways to make money. Lean: None

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (42.5)
Historically, taking more than a field goal with Pittsburgh at home in a divisional game is automatic consideration. Not this time. Cincinnati finally has a defense, and I expect the offense to become excellent as the season develops. Lean: Bengals

Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) at Washington Football Team (40.5)
I initially liked Washington, but too many sharp opinions on the other side have chased me away. Sometimes the best decision is simply passing. Lean: None

New England Patriots (45.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
There are plenty of sharp opinions supporting Jacksonville. I lean the other direction and want the field goal in a game I expect to come down to the final possession. Lean: Patriots +3

Arizona Cardinals (47.5) at San Francisco 49ers (-8.5)
San Francisco’s injuries continue to pile up, and 8.5 feels like too much to lay in this spot. Lean: Cardinals

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (42.5)
Tampa has historically been a house of horrors for Minnesota, but this Vikings team is better. The key is getting stable quarterback play from Kyler Murray. If they get it, Minnesota is the side. Lean: Vikings

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (53.5) — Rio de Janeiro
Field conditions could become a factor. Unfortunately for Dallas, its defense may be the bigger factor. Interesting game, but nothing I want pregame. Lean: None

Las Vegas Raiders (43.5) at New Orleans Saints (-3)
Both teams look improved, and this has the feel of a game decided on the final possession. Give me the points with Las Vegas. Lean: Raiders

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at Denver Broncos (43.5)
Look for Denver to simply be the tougher team. The altitude matters, and playing without Puka Nacua eventually catches up with Los Angeles. Lean: Broncos

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Chicago Bears (41.5)
This number appears to assume Case Keenum starts for Chicago. If Tyson Bagent or Caleb Williams gets the call, expect movement toward the Bears. At the current number, I still prefer the home dog. Lean: Bears

NFL Week 4 Quick Takes