Coco 7/1 in Paris

Defending champion Coco Gauff returns to Paris with a legitimate chance to repeat at the French Open, and the market may be giving us a little value.

Gauff enters as the No. 4 seed and is listed around 7-to-1, behind Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek, who are both priced near +275. Elena Rybakina, the No. 2 seed, is also sitting in the same 7-to-1 range as Gauff. That feels a bit light for a player who already proved she can win this tournament and whose game is best suited for clay.

Gauff is coming off a strong run to the Italian Open final, where she lost a tight three-set match to Elina Svitolina. That result should not be viewed as a negative. If anything, it confirms that Coco’s clay-court form is exactly where it needs to be heading into Paris.

The draw also gives her a real path. Gauff opens against fellow American Taylor Townsend and appears to have a manageable early stretch before the tournament gets serious. If the seeds hold, she would be lined up for a semifinal against Sabalenka. That is never easy, but clay is the surface where Gauff should feel most comfortable against her. Coco beat Sabalenka in last year’s French Open final in three sets, and that memory should matter.

Just as important, Svitolina, Rybakina, and Swiatek are all on the other side of the bracket. That makes Gauff’s half far more appealing than it could have been.

At 7-to-1, Coco is not some longshot flier. She is a defending champion, an elite clay-court player, and a top-four seed with a favorable draw. The market seems a little too focused on Sabalenka and Swiatek.

Gauff has value in Paris.