Portland Keeps Impressing But We’re Not Buying
Another week, another update to the Bet Thrive WNBA Power Ratings.
As always, these ratings are designed to be forward-looking rather than reactionary. They are not standings, nor are they simply a reflection of who had the best week.
The goal is to project where teams are headed.
Objective results matter and are built into the formula, but we're more interested in identifying which teams are improving, which teams are declining, and what the league may look like by the time the postseason arrives.
At the top, the Las Vegas Aces remain our highest-rated team and our favorite to win the WNBA championship. The Aces continue to possess what we believe is the highest ceiling in the sport and arguably the most talented roster the league has ever seen.
That said, the betting market continues to disagree.
The New York Liberty remain the consensus favorite at sportsbooks despite some uneven performances and signs that the roster is still searching for its best version. The Liberty remain second in our ratings, but their recent form has not inspired the same confidence as their market price.
Atlanta and Minnesota also continue to receive significant respect from oddsmakers and bettors. Both clubs remain firmly in the contender tier and have done little to damage their championship outlooks through the first few weeks of the season.
The team making the strongest push toward that elite group is Dallas.
The Wings continue to improve and sit third in our ratings. The talent level is obvious, but more importantly the chemistry continues to improve. Dallas remains one of the fastest rising teams in the league and appears to have a realistic path toward becoming a legitimate championship threat by playoff time.
Golden State is another team demanding attention.
Second year expansion teams aren't supposed to be this competitive this quickly, yet the Valkyries continue to exceed expectations. They have climbed all the way to seventh in our ratings and now sit just behind Indiana. Golden State has developed a clear identity and continues to look like a team, once again capable of competing for a playoff spot.
Portland is also forcing us to reconsider our preseason assumptions.
A few weeks ago we viewed the Fire as clearly the worst team in basketball. That assessment no longer holds up. While we remain cautious about their long-term outlook, Portland has earned a significant ratings increase through competitiveness, effort, and steady improvement. The Fire have become one of the league's biggest surprises, but we still have them near the bottom of league
On the other side of the equation, several teams are moving in the wrong direction.
Seattle continues to slide and now sits near the bottom of the ratings. Connecticut remains last and has shown little evidence that meaningful improvement is around the corner.
Phoenix has also lost ground. The Mercury remain talented, but the consistency simply hasn't been there.
Indiana remains one of the league's most fascinating teams, but the Fever have slipped as well. The talent level remains obvious, yet talent alone doesn't guarantee improvement. Until Indiana demonstrates greater consistency, accountability, and cohesion, the rating is likely to remain stagnant or move lower.
As always, the purpose of these ratings isn't to tell you who had the best week.
The goal is to identify where teams are headed before the market adjusts.
Bet Thrive WNBA Power Ratings — June 1
Las Vegas Aces — 108.9
New York Liberty — 107.4
Dallas Wings — 106.7
Atlanta Dream — 105.4
Minnesota Lynx — 105.3
Indiana Fever — 102.6
Golden State Valkyries — 102.5
Phoenix Mercury — 101.3
Los Angeles Sparks — 99.9
Washington Mystics — 97.2
Chicago Sky — 97.0
Toronto Tempo — 94.8
Portland Fire — 93.3
Seattle Storm — 91.1
Connecticut Sun — 88.8
