Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Oregon and Texas Tech feels like one of those CFP games that doesn’t just decide who advances — it can reshape the national title picture. The winner won’t just survive; they’ll walk out with real momentum and belief.

The betting market has started to lean Oregon’s way, with the number creeping up to Ducks -2.5. That move makes sense if you trust Oregon as the more proven commodity. Even in a season full of chaos, Oregon has looked like a team that understands who it is: balanced, fast, and capable of playing from ahead or grinding through adversity. Dante Moore is the key name here — not just because of talent, but because of poise. In these playoff settings, quarterbacks don’t need to be perfect, but they can’t be reckless. Oregon’s path is clear: protect Moore, stay efficient on early downs, and force Tech to chase.

Texas Tech is still the mystery box. On paper, the Red Raiders check a lot of boxes, and the headline stat jumps off the page: they’ve allowed just 10.9 points per game. That’s elite no matter what league you play in, and it signals a defense that tackles, communicates, and finishes. The question is how much of that is true dominance and how much is Big 12 context — not because the conference lacks talent, but because the week-to-week styles can be inconsistent, and that can inflate perception.

Offensively, Tech goes as far as Behren Morton takes them. If he’s comfortable, if he’s decisive, if Tech can stay out of long-yardage situations, they have the kind of structure that can absolutely win this game and force everyone to upgrade their opinion of them overnight. And if Tech pulls it off, we’ll likely become believers fast.

But right now, we’re more comfortable backing the known commodity. Oregon’s speed and balance should create just enough separation, and Moore should make the right decisions in the high-leverage moments.

Pick: Oregon 27, Texas Tech 20.