The Contenders - If You Count Past UConn
On the women’s side, there are really only six teams capable of making the Final Four. That might sound like an oversimplification to casual fans — because the sport is deeper than it’s ever been and the “middle class” is strong — but at the top there’s a clear separation. The highest level of March basketball is less about vibes and more about repeatable advantages: elite shot creation, rim protection, depth that survives foul trouble, and a defensive identity that travels. When the tournament tightens and possessions become precious, that’s where the line shows up.
And with respect — because there are excellent programs chasing — Michigan, Maryland, and Oklahoma aren’t quite there yet. You can absolutely make noise. You can absolutely win games. But the truth is those last two Elite Eight spots feel like the ceiling right now unless something breaks perfectly. The true title-level teams have multiple ways to beat you even when they’re not at their best.
Here’s the tier that can realistically cut down the nets — and why.
UConn is head and shoulders above the rest. This team doesn’t just have talent — it has alignment: roles, culture, confidence, and championship muscle memory. Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd are the best two players in the game, and that’s not hype — it’s a matchup problem every night. Strong can dominate in every phase, and Fudd’s scoring gravity bends defenses before the ball even moves. Add Blanca Quiñonez to the mix — insane upside, and she may ultimately be the second-best freshman in the country — and you’ve got a roster that can separate even when the opponent plays well. This group looks destined to cut down the nets again barring injury, because the standard in Storrs isn’t “contend.” It’s win.
TCU is the only underrated team on this list. The Frogs still aren’t consistently treated like top-five material in every poll, and that’s where the opportunity sits. Mark Campbell is brilliant and he’s building something prolific in Fort Worth — a program identity, not just a season. Olivia Miles is the face, the headliner, the one who controls tempo and temperature. But TCU’s real edge is how strong they are six deep — stronger than anybody outside of UConn. Marta Suarez is playing like an All-American, and the Frogs have five legit three-point shooters, which means spacing never dies and comebacks never feel impossible. They defend at an elite level, they execute, and they’re built to win possession games in March.
UCLA has a cohesiveness and team energy that’s tough to match. This isn’t just a collection of names — it’s a team that plays connected. They’ll likely have six players averaging double digits once Sienna Betts gets fully acclimated. Kiki Rice is the glue and remains one of the most underrated players in the country: steady, intelligent, reliable, and comfortable in big moments. Lauren Betts is a matchup nightmare — a true interior problem that forces opponents to double and distort their entire defense. And when you add shooting threats like Gabriela Jaquez and Gianna Kneepkens, you’re looking at a roster that can hurt you inside, outside, and in transition. UCLA’s ceiling is real because their floor is high — and that matters in a single-elimination sport.
South Carolina will be primed for March because Dawn Staley always gets her teams there. The Gamecocks can overwhelm opponents with physicality and depth, and they’ll be a handful for anyone not named UConn. Joyce Edwardsmight be the value choice for National Player of the Year because her impact shows up in the hardest places — efficiency, rebounds, stops, winning plays. And Ta’Niya Latson has been as advertised, giving South Carolina another reliable engine when possessions bog down. USC will find a way through the top-heavy SEC because their identity is stable: defend, rebound, pressure, and outlast.
Texas has arguably the most impressive résumé to this point, and they should get better as Aaliyah Crump gets more games under her belt. They’re physical, disciplined, and mature. Madison Booker and Rori Harmon will pull All-American attention because they can control games in different ways — Booker with her scoring and presence, Harmon with orchestration and pressure. Texas feels built for consistency, which is what you want in March: fewer bad stretches, fewer empty possessions, fewer panic moments.
LSU is about to see the schedule stiffen, but the Tigers will handle it. The reason they belong in this six is the thing that travels in tournament basketball: guard quickness and athleticism. When the game gets tight and refs swallow whistles, you need players who can create separation anyway. LSU’s guards can do that, and that may end up being one of the most uncomfortable matchup profiles — even for UConn — because speed at the point of attack forces rotations, and rotations create cracks.
That’s the line. Six teams with championship tools. Everyone else is dangerous, talented, and improving — but not quite equipped to win four straight against the very best when the bracket turns into a steel cage. March doesn’t reward hope. It rewards advantages.
