Miami Hurricanes vs. Ohio St. Buckeyes

Miami and Ohio State meet in the Cotton Bowl with a spread that’s finally starting to reflect reality: Buckeyes -10 has shown up, and it makes sense for a talent-rich Ohio State team on a neutral field. And yet, the market keeps getting tugged back toward the Hurricanes — Miami money has been persistent, knocking the number down to 9.5 in spots as bettors wrestle with the same question: is 10 too much against a legitimately good Miami team?

I understand the hesitation. Ohio State looks elite, but they don’t look invincible. They’ve had stretches this season where the execution has wobbled, the rhythm has stalled, and they’ve looked more like a very good team than an unstoppable machine. That matters when you’re laying a big number in a playoff setting, where every possession tightens and coaching decisions get magnified.

But the reason the spread exists is simple: Ohio State’s talent edge is real, and it shows up most clearly on the line of scrimmage and in team speed. The Buckeyes have enough weapons and enough quality up front that 20+ points feels like a reasonable expectation, even if the game is played at a measured pace. They can score without being perfect, and that’s the separator in matchups like this.

Miami’s path is more narrow. The Hurricanes want to stay ahead of the chains, shorten the game, and avoid the kind of negative plays that flip field position and momentum. The concern — and it’s a major one — is whether Carson Beck can handle the pressure profile Ohio State brings. The Buckeyes’ speed and skill in the front seven can make clean pockets disappear, and when a quarterback is forced into rushed reads and long-yardage situations, points become hard to find.

That’s the heart of the handicap: Miami is good enough to compete, but Ohio State’s defensive pace and physicality could choke off scoring opportunities. If the Buckeyes get an early lead, they can turn this into a possession game where Miami is constantly fighting uphill.

The number is big, but the matchup explains it.

Pick: Miami 13, Ohio State 24.