2028 Nomination Odds Snapshot: Newsom Leads Democrats, Vance Dominates Republicans
Early 2028 nomination markets are already taking shape, and while it’s obviously very early, the odds are useful as a snapshot of what the market believes is “most likely” if today’s political landscape largely holds.
On the Democratic side, the market is being treated like a two-tier board. Gavin Newsom is the clear frontrunner at roughly 34% implied probability, reflecting his profile as the loudest, most nationally visible antagonist to the current Trump-era Republican brand. California stays in the national conversation almost by default, and with recent headlines around fires, immigration enforcement, and the way conservatives regularly use California as a political foil, Newsom is positioned as the face of the opposition. Behind him sits Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at about 13%, and that number is meaningful: she has a large, energized base and rare attention-gravity, but she also represents an “outside-the-box” path to a nomination that would require the party to embrace a more disruptive direction. Still, history is a reminder that longshots can become real quickly—Obama was dismissed early in the 2008 cycle, and Trump was priced near zero before 2016 became inevitable. After Newsom and AOC, the board drops off sharply: no other Democrat is above 5%, and Kamala Harris sits around 4%, suggesting the market doesn’t yet see a settled “establishment alternative” with real momentum.
A key “longshot worth monitoring” mentioned in the discussion is Andy Beshear, the Governor of Kentucky, sitting in the 2–3% range. The argument is that if Democrats move toward a more cautious, electability-first posture—seeking a stabilizing figure who can compete in the middle—Beshear’s profile could play well: a non-California governor, culturally moderate presentation, and a “normal politics” vibe that might appeal to an exhausted electorate.
On the Republican side, the market is far more concentrated. J.D. Vance is the clear story at around 54%, a massive number this far out that essentially implies he’s the default successor to the Trump years barring a major shock. Marco Rubio is second near 9%, though that probability may overstate his real pathway given he has indicated he wouldn’t run if Vance runs. Donald Trump shows up around 5% as a tail-risk scenario—less a base case than the market pricing the possibility of political rules and norms continuing to bend in unpredictable ways. After that, Tucker Carlson (~3%) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (~2%) represent a more disruptive media-driven or insurgent lane; meaningful movement there would signal a deeper fracture or shift in the Republican coalition.
The bigger takeaway: these markets aren’t predictions carved in stone—they’re probabilities reflecting uncertainty, incentives, and today’s narratives. They’ll move as candidates emerge, coalitions form, and the country’s mood changes.
