Texans at Chargers

The Texans and Chargers are both headed in the right direction, but they’re doing it in two very different ways — and that’s what makes this matchup so tight.

Houston’s identity starts on defense. They’re physical at every level, they tackle, they make you earn drives, and they’re built to keep games in that uncomfortable, low-margin zone where one mistake flips everything. That’s also why the Texans are a tough out in January: even when the offense stalls, the defense keeps them alive, shortens the game, and gives them chances late. If this turns into a field-position battle with long third downs, Houston will be right at home.

But the Chargers have the one thing you can’t manufacture in a playoff-style game: a quarterback and system that can generate answers when the script breaks. Justin Herbert doesn’t need perfect conditions to move the ball — he can win from the pocket, he can win outside structure, and he’s calm when the game gets tight. That matters against a good defense, because you’re not chasing explosives all day — you’re stacking conversions, stealing one or two key third downs, and taking the points when they’re there.

This also feels like one of those spots where Los Angeles can lean into balance. If they can get any efficiency on the ground and avoid obvious passing downs, it forces Houston to play honest and keeps Herbert from having to be Superman every snap. And when it’s late in the fourth quarter, with the number sitting small, you want the team you trust to execute cleanly in the final five minutes — protection calls, clock management, and making one drive count.

I respect Houston’s defense a lot, and I like where both teams are headed. But in a game this close, I’m siding with the Chargers to find a way, win the hidden-down battle, and cover the short price.

Pick: Chargers 24, Texans 19.

BT