Chiefs at Broncos

Christmas Day football at Arrowhead usually screams marquee, but this Broncos–Chiefs matchup is more about motivation than mystique. Kansas City’s season is effectively over, while Denver is playing for the whole thing: home-field advantage, an AFC West championship, and the kind of playoff path that turns a great season into a special one.

That urgency shows up in the number. Denver is a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 36.5, a telling combo that says the oddsmakers expect one-way traffic and very little scoring from the Chiefs. And it’s hard to argue. With Kansas City turning to a third-string quarterback, this game sets up as a long, uncomfortable afternoon if the Broncos defense comes with the right edge.

Denver’s formula is simple: play it like a playoff game, win early downs, and make the Chiefs earn every yard. Bo Nix and the Broncos don’t need to chase style points—they need to avoid the self-inflicted mistakes that keep underdogs alive: turnovers, penalties, busted coverages, and short fields. If Denver stays clean, they can methodically build a lead and squeeze the life out of the game.

The matchup tilts even harder when you look at how Denver can attack Kansas City’s biggest weakness: protection and quarterback comfort. A disciplined pass rush can turn this into a “Nightmare on Christmas” for a limited Chiefs offense, and that’s exactly where Denver’s defense has made its living all season—pressure, tackling, and forcing opponents into third-and-long. If Chris Oladokun is forced to play from behind, the playbook shrinks fast.

Offensively, Denver can help its own defense by leaning on the run game and keeping the clock moving. Jaleel McLaughlin has the kind of burst that plays well in a grind-it-out script, and if Denver can stay ahead of the chains, Nix can pick his spots without taking unnecessary risks.

This one should be controlled, physical, and low-drama if Denver treats it with the seriousness the stakes demand.

Pick: Denver 27, Kansas City 9.