San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

San Francisco going into Seattle is one of those playoff spots where you can talk yourself into the underdog… and still end up holding the wrong ticket.

Yes, there’s plenty to respect about the 49ers. Kyle Shanahan is still one of the best in football, and Brock Purdy is good enough to run the system clean when things are stable. They just went into Philadelphia and survived a tough road game, and they’ve seen the Seahawks twice already — there’s no mystery here. Christian McCaffrey is still the engine, and if San Francisco can keep it close into the fourth quarter, you’re always one busted coverage away from the game flipping.

But here’s the problem: Seattle is simply better right now, and the matchup has moved into “wear you down” territory.

The Seahawks are the #1 seed for a reason. Mike Macdonald has them playing grown-man football — defense first, physical up front, and confident at home in one of the loudest buildings in the league. And offensively, Sam Darnold doesn’t need to be Superman. He just needs to protect the ball, take the easy throws, and let the defense dictate the game. When you’ve got a target like Jaxon Smith-Njigba stressing the middle of the field, you don’t need to force anything.

The biggest factor for me is this: the 49ers are more banged up than people want to admit, and this travel grind is real. Road playoff win, short week energy, back on a plane, now another hostile environment — eventually, that catches up over four quarters. Especially when the opponent can rush the passer, close windows, and make every drive feel like a 12-play math test.

San Francisco will have moments. They’re too well-coached not to. But the deeper this game goes, the more it feels like Seattle’s depth and physicality start stacking wins on every snap.

Pick: 49ers 13 Seahawks 23