Houston Texans at New England Patriots

The Texans head to Foxborough for a Divisional Round matchup that feels more like January football from a different era — physical, methodical, and likely decided by mistakes more than highlights. This is a rare playoff game where our key pregame position is on the under, because it’s hard to see either team consistently marching the ball up and down the field for four quarters.

New England, led by rookie quarterback Drake Maye and head coach Mike Vrabel, has been built to win ugly. Vrabel teams don’t beat themselves, and this Patriots offense is at its best when it stays on schedule, plays field position, and lets Maye pick spots rather than force hero-ball. Maye has shown poise beyond his years, but this is a major step up in defensive competition — Houston’s front is fast, aggressive, and designed to shrink the pocket and erase easy throws.

On the other side, DeMeco Ryans brings a Texans team that travels well because their identity travels: defense, pressure, and discipline. C.J. Stroud doesn’t need to light up the scoreboard for Houston to win this game — he needs to protect the football, avoid the killer sacks, and capitalize on the handful of opportunities that show up when two strong defenses start trading punches. If the Texans can run the ball just enough to keep the Patriots honest, Stroud will have his chances on play-action and second-reaction throws.

This has “slugfest” written all over it. Both teams want ball control, clean possessions, and no giveaways. Drives will be longer, windows will be tighter, and touchdowns will feel expensive. The biggest swing factor might be which quarterback avoids the one catastrophic decision that flips a low-scoring playoff game.

We’ll trust Houston’s slight edge in experience and defensive consistency to carry them through a tight fourth quarter.

Best position: Under
Pick: Texans 17, Patriots 16