Ram Tough - Value Still There
The Rams at +555 to win the Super Bowl at Circa this morning is one of the more telling prices on the entire board — not because it guarantees anything, but because it signals real market respect for a team that could easily end up as the 5 or 6 seed in the NFC. Futures markets don’t hand out that kind of number to a “nice story.” They give it to teams that have a championship ceiling.
Yes, the recent form looks messy on paper. Three losses in five games will scare off the public. But context matters. The loss at Seattle wasn’t a collapse — it was the kind of coin-flip road game you can play well and still lose, especially against an elite opponent. Then the Atlanta loss had the feel of a classic hangover spot: a team with high emotional output the week prior, on the road, flat in a weird environment. That doesn’t excuse it, but it does explain it. And more importantly, the Rams are getting healthier, which is what you want in late December: trending up physically and sharpening timing, not limping into January.
A clean, likely path is sitting right in front of them. Handle the Cardinals, and if the Seahawks handle business in San Francisco (as we expect them to) — that’s the scenario that lands L.A. in the 5 seed. From there, the opening playoff trip to Carolina is exactly the kind of matchup you want: the Rams would be a significant favorite, with the more complete roster and the playoff-tested decision-making edge.
And that’s where this gets interesting. It only takes one upset elsewhere — and we think at least one of Chicago or Philadelphia is vulnerable in the Wild Card round — for the bracket to open. Suddenly, the Rams are looking at a second-week scenario that could be manageable: at Chicago, at Philly, or even a home date with Green Bay depending on how the chaos breaks. Winning in the cold at Soldier Field or in Philly won’t be easy, but the Rams are better than those teams when they’re playing their game.
All year, it’s felt like the NFC runs through one collision: Rams vs. Seahawks. If that’s what we get for the conference, we’ll take Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford, and a roster built to win now. And if L.A. reaches the Super Bowl, it’s hard to imagine them not being favored.
At +555, the Rams are absolutely tempting in the futures market. But the sharper approach may be simpler: bet them game-by-game, scale your stake as the path clarifies, and let the bracket do the compounding for you.
