Oregon Ducks vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana already proved it can walk into Eugene and win, and that’s exactly why this Peach Bowl rematch is so fascinating: the Hoosiers have the receipt, but Oregon has the profile.
Curt Cignetti has built Indiana into a ruthless, mistake-light operation, and it starts with quarterback Fernando Mendoza running the offense with poise and efficiency. Indiana doesn’t need to be flashy to be dangerous — it needs to stay on schedule, win field position, and force you to play a patient game. That’s how they turned the first meeting into a convincing statement: control the tempo, avoid self-inflicted wounds, and make the other team earn every clean drive.
But Oregon is the kind of opponent that can invalidate that blueprint if it plays to its identity. Dan Lanning recruits speed like it’s a prerequisite, and this Ducks roster still looks like the faster team on the field at most positions. Quarterback Dante Moore gives Oregon the ceiling Indiana has to respect — not just because he can make NFL throws, but because Oregon can change the geometry of a defense in a hurry. The Ducks don’t need 12-play drives to score; they just need one coverage bust, one missed fit in the run game, one bad angle in space.
The first game matters, but it doesn’t have to define the rematch. Indiana’s win in Eugene can be read two ways: proof the Hoosiers belong on this stage, and a reminder that Oregon’s margin for error shrinks when it gets pushed into long-yardage and obvious passing downs. That’s the core question here — can Indiana create those “must-throw” moments again, or will Oregon’s athletic advantage show up earlier and more often this time?
From a betting perspective, the market is still pricing Indiana like the safer, more complete week-to-week team, and that makes sense. They’ve been steady, disciplined, and hard to knock off their rhythm. But if you’re looking for the higher-upside side, it’s Oregon. The Ducks have more ways to win: they can win with explosives, they can win with pace, and they can win by simply being the more physical team in the fourth quarter — which is the part that often gets overlooked when people talk about “speed teams.”
Indiana has a real case. But in a semifinal, talent depth and physicality tend to become louder every series. I’ll take Oregon’s ceiling, Oregon’s speed, and Oregon’s ability to adjust off that first matchup.
Pick: Oregon 24, Indiana 20.
