New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

The AFC Championship in Denver sets up as the kind of game that makes bettors uncomfortable — because it’s probably not going to be pretty, and it’s probably going to come down to a handful of brutal, high-leverage moments.

New England comes in as the clear market favorite, and it’s easy to understand why. Mike Vrabel has the Patriots playing the kind of disciplined, mistake-free football that travels in January, and 2nd-year quarterback Drake Maye has already shown he can handle big stages without forcing the game. The Patriots don’t need fireworks to win — they want field position, clean possessions, and a fourth quarter where the other team cracks first. That formula is how you survive playoff football.

But Denver is a dangerous opponent in this exact script.

The headline storyline is the injury to Bo Nix, which changes everything for the Broncos offense. Instead of trying to win with explosiveness, Denver shifts into survival mode with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback — and that’s not necessarily a death sentence when you’re at home with a defense that can keep the score low. Sean Payton’s job is simple now: don’t turn the ball over, don’t take back-breaking sacks, and drag this game into a late slugfest where one mistake flips the trophy.

And here’s the twist: the Patriots might play right into that Broncos gameplan.

Denver’s offensive line is good enough to keep Stidham upright if they stay on schedule, and the Broncos have to establish structure in the run game to give him manageable third downs. Nobody’s asking Stidham to be a hero — they’re asking him to be steady. If Denver can string together a few long drives, steal some clock, and avoid the catastrophic turnover, the pressure swings back onto New England to prove they can separate.

Because this game is built for defenses.

Both units should win the day — tight windows, contested throws, punts that matter, and every red zone trip feeling like gold. If the Broncos can turn this into a “first to 20 wins” type of fight, the home crowd becomes a real factor, the altitude becomes a factor, and the Patriots’ favorite status starts to feel heavy.

New England may be the all around better team, but Denver has the better setup for the kind of ugly game that produces surprises.

Pick: Patriots 17, Broncos 20