Naomi Osaka is a Bet at 22 to 1

Naomi Osaka at 22/1 to win the Australian Open is the kind of futures position we’re willing to take because it blends upside, surface fit, and a realistic path — not just blind hope.

Start with the biggest point: she’s only 28. The way people talk about Osaka sometimes, you’d think she’s washed or finishing up a career. That’s nonsense. She’s still in her prime window, and when she’s right physically and mentally, she has championship-level power and composure that very few players on tour can match.

The last major Osaka played also matters more than people want to admit. She made the semifinals of the U.S. Open, which is a clear reminder the ceiling is still there. The results since then have been mediocre, but context matters. She battled a sustained illness around the holidays, and it’s hard to look sharp when your body isn’t cooperating. More importantly, even in uneven stretches, she’s been competitive, and her confidence has looked stronger than the box scores suggest.

And then there’s the surface. Hard court Osaka is a different animal. All four of her Grand Slam titles have come on hard courts, and her style is perfectly built for Australia — big first strike tennis, elite return pressure when locked in, and the ability to shorten points against defenders who want to grind.

The draw is another reason this is worth taking. If the seeds hold — and they usually don’t perfectly — Osaka could see Iga Swiatek in the Round of 16, and we’d have a significant lean toward Osaka in that matchup. From there, a potential quarterfinal against Elena Rybakina is tough, but it’s also a spot where Osaka’s serve-and-strike patterns can absolutely win.

A semifinal matchup with Amanda Anisimova is the concern, but if Naomi gets that far, we’re sitting on a 22/1 ticket with massive leverage and options. And it helps that Sabalenka and Gauff are on the other side of the bracket.

This isn’t nostalgia. It’s a calculated swing on greatness — and at 22/1, it’s worth it.