Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
The AFC Wild Card round brings a fascinating contrast to Foxborough: Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert walking into the cold to face Mike Vrabel’s Patriots with Drake Maye trying to keep a dream season alive.
On paper, this is the kind of game New England wants. Vrabel teams tend to shrink the script: win the hidden yards, stay out of bad down-and-distance, and turn the fourth quarter into a discipline contest. The Patriots have leaned into that identity all year — a physical front, a defense that forces you to earn everything, and an offense that’s comfortable playing field position and letting Maye take calculated shots instead of living on them.
But the Chargers are exactly the type of opponent that can break that template in a hurry. Herbert doesn’t need many “perfect” looks to create explosives, and Harbaugh’s presence shows up in the way Los Angeles plays situational football: they’ll run it when it’s ugly, they’ll protect their quarterback, and they won’t panic if they’re down a score. If this becomes a one-possession game late, you’re staring at one of the few quarterbacks in the league who can flip it with two throws — and that’s why betting against Herbert in a tight fourth quarter always feels like grabbing a live wire.
The swing points are pretty clear:
Third downs: If the Patriots can keep Herbert in longer downs and force the ball to come out on schedule, New England’s pressure package becomes a real problem. If the Chargers stay ahead of the chains, they’ll stress the edges and keep Vrabel from dialing up his best stuff.
Red zone: Both teams can move it between the 20s, but playoff games often come down to touchdowns vs. field goals.
Turnovers and special teams: Cold-weather possessions are fragile. One muffed exchange, one tipped ball, one blown punt lane — and the whole game tilts.
The market and the data point to New England’s stability at home, and I get it. Still, the Chargers have the scarier “break glass” option in Herbert if things go sideways. This feels close for a while, but I’ll side with Vrabel’s structure and a Patriots team that’s been comfortable winning ugly all season.
Pick: Chargers 20, Patriots 28.
