Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Monday night in Pittsburgh feels like playoff football the second you turn the TV on: cold air, heavy pads, and a game that’s going to be decided in the trenches. Mike Tomlin’s Steelers are at home, but they draw one of the most physical visitors in the bracket in DeMeco Ryans’ Texans — a team that wins with speed, violence, and a defense that can flip a game in two snaps.

The headline is C.J. Stroud vs. Aaron Rodgers, and it’s a fascinating contrast. Stroud is the young star trying to play clean and stay on schedule, while Rodgers is the veteran who can steal a game late if you give him extra possessions. The problem for Pittsburgh is that “extra possessions” are hard to find against Houston if the Texans are playing their brand: disciplined early downs, tight coverage windows, and a pass rush that forces quick decisions.

From the Steelers’ perspective, the formula is pretty straightforward: make this ugly. Lean on the run game, avoid negative plays, and let the pass rush — led by T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward — hunt. If Pittsburgh can win first down, keep Stroud in second-and-long, and turn this into a field-position grind, they can absolutely drag Houston into a fourth-quarter coin flip.

For Houston, it’s about surviving the initial surge and then asserting control. The Texans don’t need a masterpiece from Stroud — they need ball security, a few explosive completions when Pittsburgh overcommits, and a steady plan to neutralize pressure (quick game, movement, and smart play-calling). If Houston’s offensive line holds up well enough to keep Stroud upright, the Texans’ overall balance and defensive edge should start to show.

This is the kind of game where one side “looks better” for 55 minutes and still has to finish. We’ll take the team we trust to control the line of scrimmage and dictate the tone.

Pick: Texans 21, Steelers 16. If Houston isn’t winning up front — look to grab Pittsburgh live.