Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

The Lions head to Soldier Field in a spot that looks simple on paper — and usually those are the ones that still make you do the full checklist. Chicago is laying -3, and while that number lines up with broad power ratings, the trajectory and motivation point to a spread that should be meaningfully higher.

Start with the human layer: Bears head coach Ben Johnson is facing the organization he helped build offensively in Detroit, across from Dan Campbell, and there’s no mystery about the emotional charge in that relationship. Chicago is still chasing the No. 2 seed, still building postseason momentum, and they’ve been playing like a team that expects to be in the final four teams standing.

The quarterback contrast matters too. Caleb Williams has the Bears offense operating at full speed, and his confidence is obvious — not forced, not fragile. Meanwhile, Jared Goff can absolutely carve you up when Detroit is whole and protected, but the Lions are limping into the finish line and dealing with injuries at the wrong time. That’s a brutal combo when you’re going into a cold-weather road game against a team that can win in multiple ways.

Matchup-wise, the Bears have the kind of formula that travels and holds up in January: run game first, play-action off it, then let the defense squeeze the life out of the second half. Detroit’s issues show up most clearly where it hurts most — stopping the run and holding the edges — and that’s exactly where Chicago can apply pressure from the opening drive. Expect the Bears to establish the run early, stay ahead of the sticks, and keep Detroit’s pass rush from pinning its ears back.

If this becomes a “Who wants it more?” game, it’s hard to make a serious case for Detroit finding that urgency on a January day in Chicago while the Bears are still climbing the ladder.

Prediction: Lions 17, Bears 31.