Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Baltimore heads to Pittsburgh with the AFC North and a playoff spot riding on it, and this is the kind of game where power ratings become background noise. These teams know each other too well, they hit too hard, and the margins are always razor thin. Expect a classic divisional slugfest that feels like January football from the opening snap — field position, third downs, red-zone toughness, and one or two chaos plays deciding everything.

The Ravens come in with the higher ceiling and the more complete profile on paper, but “on paper” doesn’t survive long at Acrisure Stadium when the Steelers smell a division title. Pittsburgh’s formula is the same one that has kept them alive in games like this for years: make it ugly, keep the score compressed, and let the defense create one game-changing moment. T.J. Watt is the headline on that side — he doesn’t just pressure quarterbacks, he changes how an offense calls protections and how a QB sees the pocket. Against a Ravens offense that wants to stay on schedule and control tempo, a single strip-sack, tipped ball, or negative play on third-and-short can flip the entire game script.

For Baltimore, the path is straightforward: stay patient, win early downs, and don’t give Pittsburgh short fields. But that’s easier said than done in this rivalry. Drives are hard, yards are earned, and the red zone becomes a wrestling match. If you’re expecting fireworks, you’re watching the wrong game — this is going to be a grind, and it’s going to be tight in the fourth quarter.

That’s why I’m taking the points with the home team. Steelers +3.5 in a game that should be lined closer to a true coin flip is the only way I want to play it.

Pick: Ravens 19 Steelers 20