Arms Race

It is only May, but the National League Cy Young race is already shaping up like something special.

In a normal year, any one of these starts would be the story. This season, the story is the cluster. A handful of arms are putting together extraordinary early campaigns, and the market reflects just how competitive this race could become through the summer.

Paul Skenes sits near the top at +240, and for my money, he is still the best arm of the bunch. He is the guy I trust most to keep dominating as the season gets longer. Skenes is 6-3 with a 2.62 ERA and a ridiculous 0.71 WHIP. That WHIP is the eye-opener. He controls traffic better than almost anyone in baseball, and if Pittsburgh can remain relevant in the NL Central, he will stay firmly in the conversation.

Cristopher Sánchez is right there at +250, and the 6-foot-6 lefty has been dominant for the resurgent Phillies. Sánchez is 5-2 with a 1.82 ERA, and the command has been outstanding: 80 strikeouts against only 14 walks. Philadelphia looks alive again, and if the Phillies keep winning, Sánchez’s case will only get louder.

Jacob Misiorowski may be the hottest arm in baseball at +550. He has not allowed a run or even an extra-base hit since April. That is absurd. Misiorowski is 4-2 with a 1.89 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and 88 strikeouts against 18 walks. The only concern is durability, as he has been pulled from games with cramping. It does not appear to be an imminent red flag, but it is worth monitoring.

Chris Sale, at +500, is doing it again. The 37-year-old lefty is having another terrific season in Atlanta, sitting 6-3 with a 1.96 ERA for a Braves team that looks like the most serious threat to the Dodgers in the National League. If Atlanta keeps winning, Sale will remain a major factor.

Then there is Shohei Ohtani at +700, and this is the candidate the voters may want to consider most. An Ohtani Cy Young would be a massive story, and if he is close statistically, his name and narrative could absolutely matter. So far, the numbers are insane: matching 0.82 ERA and 0.82 WHIP marks. He is only 3-2, but that has more to do with inconsistent run support than performance.

Chase Burns is a fascinating longer shot at +1200. The 23-year-old is 6-1 with a 1.83 ERA in his first full big-league season. The questions are whether Cincinnati can stay relevant and whether his young arm holds up through the grind of summer.

And then there is Mason Miller at 65/1. A closer winning this race is unlikely with so many elite starters dealing, but Miller has been lights out: 15 saves and a 0.79 ERA. If San Diego stays tight with the Dodgers, he could become the Padres’ face of the summer.

This race is loaded already.

And it may only get better.