Senator Kelly Surges

Senator Mark Kelly is suddenly emerging as one of the most intriguing movers in the 2028 Democratic nomination market, with his odds jumping from 1% in late November to 5% today. In a field where only a handful of candidates ever crack the five-percent threshold, this surge is meaningful. What’s driving it is a political backfire: Republican attacks meant to discredit Kelly have instead amplified his credibility. After he was accused by Pete Hegseth and the Trump administration of engaging in criminal behavior for telling military leaders they must refuse illegal orders, a resurfaced 2016 video showed Hegseth making the exact same argument. The contradiction has become a public embarrassment for Hegseth and the administration, and voters appear to be siding with the decorated Navy captain and astronaut rather than his critics.

Kelly is now tied with Pete Buttigieg and sits behind only Gavin Newsom (36%) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (12%) among Democrats. That positioning is notable—he is now the strongest straight, white, non-Californian, non-Jewish male in the field, a category that has struggled to gain traction in recent cycles. In our recent analysis where Andy Beshear (2%) was described as a viable longshot, the same demographic and political dynamics that applied to Beshear now work far more strongly in Kelly’s favor.

The past few weeks have given Kelly the rare opportunity to showcase his military credentials, calm temperament, and leadership qualities at a moment when voters are craving seriousness. The question is whether he has the appetite—or the branding machinery—to stay consistently in the spotlight. But one thing is increasingly clear: whenever Mark Kelly becomes the focus, his popularity climbs.