ND > Miami > Several SEC Locks

The Notre Dame vs. Miami debate has turned into a never-ending soap opera, with Hurricanes fans clinging to a three-point home win in August like it settled the sport. That margin basically is home-field advantage, which means the result is far less statistically meaningful than the noise it’s now generating. Talking heads scream that “head-to-head has to matter,” but they ignore that it was a one-score game in Miami’s building at a very different point in the season. Today, Notre Dame is simply the better football team and would be favored by roughly six points on a neutral field. You don’t need to squint to see it—almost every computer model, analytic system, and oddsmaker lands in the same range.

The more interesting story isn’t Irish vs. ‘Canes; it’s how both are being squeezed while clearly superior to multiple SEC teams that appear pre-slotted into the playoff. Oklahoma is the most obvious pretender. The Sooners’ offense is so limited that a deep playoff run is off the table, yet they’re protected by brand and conference logo. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt and Texas are both more dangerous right now than Oklahoma, Alabama, or Ole Miss, especially when you factor in trajectory and matchup profiles.

For bettors, this is where the circus becomes opportunity. The committee and the talk-show crowd can obsess over a three-point August result all they want; the markets will eventually have to price who these teams are today. When the right team gets matched up against overvalued SEC brands in the playoff, we’re likely to see soft numbers. We’ll sit back, watch the narrative machine spin, and wait for the inevitable gift lines that follow.