O Face

Notre Dame being left out of the College Football Playoff blows up the original script and opens the door for a handful of other programs to at least make some noise. But once you strip away the emotion and look at the rosters, coaching, and paths, this field still feels like a two-team race. Oregon and Ohio State are the only programs with a complete championship profile—elite quarterback play, depth at the skill spots, NFL linemen on both sides, and staffs that have shown they can adjust on the fly. We expect the Big Ten titans to meet in the national championship game, and if one stumbles along the way, the other should be the one cutting down the confetti.

Georgia is the wild card, as always. The Bulldogs have the talent and the defensive ceiling, but drawing Ohio State in the semifinal is a brutal road. It’s hard to imagine them winning two straight games at that level of physical and tactical intensity. Indiana’s upset of Ohio State in the Big Ten title game was a terrific story, but it also confirmed their limitations. The Hoosiers barely got past a flat, exhausted Buckeye squad and didn’t exactly scream “future champion” in the process.

Meanwhile, the SEC remains overvalued. The conference brand still carries weight, but the product hasn’t backed it up, and this shapes up as a realistic third straight year without an SEC team in the national title game. Texas Tech is interesting on paper, yet the Big 12 has been a consistent fade spot when the lights are brightest.

Notre Dame was the most likely team to win the whole thing—until they were left home. With the Irish erased from the bracket, the focus shifts clearly to Oregon and Ohio State. One of them should be hoisting the trophy.