Marjorie Taylor Greene’s 2028 Odds Surge

The 2028 Republican nominee market continues to shift, and Marjorie Taylor Greene’s odds have surged to 7%, making her one of the most notable movers on the board. Her resignation from Congress and public break with Trump have positioned her as the leading figure among Trump-adjacent outsiders—those who appeal to the MAGA base but aren’t directly tied to the administration. In a cycle defined by volatility, that lane matters.

Still, the market has a clear frontrunner: JD Vance at 55%. His alignment with Trump, rising national profile, and aggressive positioning on foreign policy and culture issues make him the most logical heir. Marco Rubio sits at 8%, but he faces a difficult strategic question—how does he separate from Vance when the two share almost identical ideological space inside the administration? If Rubio runs, he needs contrast, not overlap.

Ron DeSantis at 3% is the value play if he attempts a comeback after his disastrous 2024 run. His national brand remains strong enough to matter, and voters have short memories.

If the Trump administration completely unravels, Rand Paul at 1% becomes a compelling long shot. He’s a consistent Trump critic with a distinct libertarian message that doesn’t overlap with the field.

And with the political environment as chaotic as it’s been, a true outsider entering late isn’t impossible.