Los Angeles Chargers Over 10.5 Wins

The Chargers over 10.5 wins at +130 is one of my favorite NFL season bets, and the case starts with Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert.

That coach-quarterback combination gives Los Angeles a ceiling that I think the market is still underrating. Herbert remains one of the most talented quarterbacks in football, and the criticism surrounding him has become excessive. He needs protection, and the offensive line was a problem last season because of injuries, but the bet here is that the unit is healthier and better schematically.

Mike McDaniel takes over as offensive coordinator, and that should immediately make this offense more creative and explosive. The Chargers have speed at wide receiver, one of the deeper tight end groups in the league, and a rushing attack led by Omarion Hampton that should keep defenses honest. If the offensive line holds up, this can be the best offense Herbert has played in.

The defense also has room to improve. Chris O’Leary has been promoted to defensive coordinator, giving the unit continuity while bringing a different energy. The edge rushers are a major strength, and this defense should create problems for opposing quarterbacks all season.

I also don’t fear the schedule nearly as much as some do. Arizona, Las Vegas twice, the Jets and Miami are all very manageable. If the Chargers take care of those games, they only need to play around .500 against the tougher part of the schedule to get to 11 wins.

That tougher stretch includes games at Tampa Bay and Baltimore, plus San Francisco at home. Those are respected teams, but they are not untouchable.

If the Chargers stay reasonably healthy, I see at least 11 wins. Over 10.5 at +130 is the bet I prefer, while over 9.5 at -150 also offers solid value for anyone wanting more margin for error.