France Has a Real Shot at Winning the Women’s World Cup

The United States remains the clear favorite to win the 2026 FIBA Women’s Basketball World Cup, but this tournament might be considerably more competitive than many American fans expect.

France can win this thing.

The betting market is telling us that, too. The historically dominant Americans are being priced at roughly an 80% probability to win the tournament. That sounds overwhelming until you consider how rarely the United States enters an international women’s basketball tournament with this much legitimate competition.

France nearly pulled it off at the 2024 Paris Olympics, losing the gold-medal game to the United States by a single point. That performance was no fluke. France has developed one of the deepest talent pools in international basketball, with eight WNBA players on its World Cup roster and, importantly, a core that has extensive experience playing together.

Gabby Williams and Janelle Salaün of Golden State headline the group, along with Carla Leite of Portland, Dominique Malonga of Seattle, and New York’s Marine Johannès and Pauline Astier. These aren't simply WNBA roster fillers. There is legitimate high-level talent throughout the French team.

That creates an interesting challenge for U.S. coach Kara Lawson.

The American roster is obviously loaded. Nobody can match the United States player-for-player, but international tournaments aren't fantasy drafts. Lawson has a limited amount of time to transform an enormous collection of individual talent into a cohesive basketball team.

The Americans will need to defend, move the basketball and resist the temptation to simply overwhelm opponents individually. Against most countries, superior talent can cover mistakes.

Against France, it might not.

The United States deserves to be favored, but France has talent, continuity and confidence after coming within one point of Olympic gold.

An 80% chance for America means something else, too: there's a real 20% opening for somebody else. France is the team most capable of taking it.