Is the Palmetto State in Play?

South Carolina is still a red state, and nobody should lose sight of that. Lindsey Graham has survived plenty of political turbulence over the years, and Republicans still begin this race with the structural advantage. But this is no longer the kind of contest that can be laughed off as automatic. Democrats have a real candidate in Dr. Annie Andrews, and just as important, they have something that matters in every upset bid: momentum.

Andrews gives Democrats a credible challenger rather than a placeholder name on the ballot. That changes the feel of the race. Graham has long benefited from Republicans in South Carolina voting for him even when they were not especially enthusiastic about him. That kind of reluctant support can hold up in a normal cycle, but 2026 is shaping up to be anything but normal. If voters see Graham as stale, too tied to Washington, and too eager to line up behind an unpopular Iran war, the opening for a real challenge gets wider.

The numbers are moving in that direction. Democratic odds in this race have roughly doubled over the last two months, climbing from around 9% in early February to roughly 21% by late March. That still leaves Andrews as the underdog, but it is a meaningful jump and a sign that traders and observers no longer see this as a complete fantasy. At the same time, polling has become noticeably more competitive, reinforcing the idea that Graham is more vulnerable than a typical South Carolina Republican incumbent should be.

The broader environment helps Andrews too. Democrats have continued to overperform in special elections, and that trend matters even when they do not always finish the job. Overperformance is often the early signal before actual upsets arrive. South Carolina remains difficult terrain for any Democrat, but if there is a year for a longshot to become a real threat, this looks like one. Annie Andrews is still climbing uphill, but the hill is no longer as steep as it looked two months ago.

For your reference, that update is based on current March polling and market pricing, plus recent reporting on Democrats’ special-election overperformance trend.