Michigan at Michigan State
Tonight in East Lansing, Michigan heads into the Breslin Center for the kind of Big Ten rivalry game that usually comes down to five possessions, a couple loose balls, and who can stay composed when the crowd is shaking the building. The Wolverines are a slight favorite (-1.5), but this feels like a true coin flip once the intensity kicks in and both teams settle into half-court basketball.
The chess match starts inside. Tom Izzo is going to make Michigan’s frontcourt work for everything. Expect a steady mix of bodies and looks aimed at slowing Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr., and Aday Mara—different matchups, quick doubles at times, physical fronts, and lots of contact on every catch. Michigan State doesn’t usually let you play clean in the paint at home, and Izzo’s teams are comfortable turning games into a grind where the ball feels heavy late.
That puts pressure on Michigan’s perimeter. If the Spartans can crowd the lane and win the physical battle on the interior, Michigan will have to hit shots from the outside to keep the floor spaced and the offense flowing. The Wolverines can’t afford empty possessions that end in tough contested twos, because that’s exactly the environment Michigan State wants—slow tempo, long possessions, and a game that becomes a rebounding and free-throw contest in the final minutes.
For Michigan State, the key will be controlling the glass and forcing Michigan into late-clock decisions. When Sparty strings together stops and rebounds, the offense doesn’t need to be pretty—it just needs to be steady. The Breslin energy does the rest, especially if this stays within one or two possessions deep into the second half.
This one has “last minute” written all over it. Michigan has the talent to win, but I like the Spartans’ ability to defend with multiple bigs, keep the Wolverines from getting comfortable inside, and turn it into a rivalry street fight.
Prediction: Michigan 69, Michigan State 72. And if that’s how it goes, payback is going to be rough when they square off again in Ann Arbor on March 8.
