Miami Hurricanes v. Indiana Hoosiers
Miami and Indiana meet for the CFP National Championship in a matchup that feels tighter and more physical than the public might expect. Yes, this is a star-driven game at quarterback — Carson Beck for Miami and Fernando Mendoza for Indiana — but the real story is two defenses that are built to control tempo, punish mistakes, and turn long drives into frustration.
Indiana has become the most complete team in the country under Curt Cignetti, and it shows up in the details. The Hoosiers don’t beat themselves. They play with structure, they tackle, they win field position, and they consistently force opponents into uncomfortable down-and-distance situations. Mendoza has been the headliner all season, and he deserves it — he’s calm, accurate, and efficient — but Indiana’s edge is that they don’t need chaos to win. They can win clean, win ugly, and win with patience.
Miami, coached by Mario Cristobal, brings the kind of toughness and defensive speed that can keep any game close. The Hurricanes’ identity has been physicality up front and discipline on the back end — forcing you to earn every yard, and punishing teams that get impatient. Offensively, Beck is at his best when he can stay on schedule and take the easy completions early. But Indiana’s defense is designed to eliminate “easy,” which means Miami may have to string together long drives without the negative plays that typically show up against elite units.
From a betting perspective, this is a rare title game where we’re most interested in unders, both in the game flow and in selective player markets. We don’t talk player props much, but this is the kind of matchup where unders on key offensive players make sense because both defenses are built to limit explosive plays and force slow, grinding possessions.
We expect the first half to feel like a fight — punts, field position, and a lot of chess. But over four quarters, Indiana’s balance, patience, and ability to win the small moments should start to separate.
Pick: Miami 16, Indiana 26
