Lamar Doubtful - Green Bay -4.5

Saturday night in Lambeau has a very different feel depending on who’s under center, and right now the story is the market reacting to Lamar Jackson being listed as doubtful. That news is exactly why this line has climbed to Packers -4.5, and it’s also why we’re feeling good holding Green Bay -3 in pocket. When you beat the market early, you’re not just betting the game — you’re building long-term edge. And if Lamar is truly trending out, there’s a solid chance this number keeps creeping higher.

The handicap is pretty simple: Baltimore without Lamar is a different offense. The playbook shrinks, the explosive element disappears, and the margin for error gets razor thin. If Tyler Huntley has to start, the Ravens likely lean run-heavy and conservative, hoping their defense can keep it close and turn it into a low-possession grinder. That’s a reasonable plan — but it’s also tough to pull off on the road in prime time, especially if you fall behind early.

Green Bay’s offense doesn’t need to be perfect here — it needs to be composed. Protect the football, win the field-position battle, and force Baltimore to sustain long drives rather than living off scramble magic. The Packers’ path is to take the air out of the game with efficient early-down offense, keep the Ravens behind the chains, and let Lambeau amplify every third down. If the Packers get a lead, the Ravens are forced into a style they don’t want without Lamar’s playmaking to rescue broken plays.

One note to monitor: Green Bay’s quarterback situation has some uncertainty too, but the difference is the market is primarily pricing the Baltimore downgrade — and for good reason. This sets up as a classic “trust the cleaner operation at home” spot, with the side value tied directly to the injury report and the direction of the number.

We’re comfortable siding with Green Bay up to -5.5, and we expect the Packers to get it done in a controlled, lower-scoring win.

Pick: Ravens 16, Packers 26.