Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
The NFC’s oldest rivalry gets the playoff stage it deserves as the Bears host the Packers with the season on the line — and if you’re looking for a “pretty” game, you’re probably in the wrong place. This one has four-quarter fistfight written all over it. These teams know each other, the stakes are massive, and the emotional temperature is always a few degrees hotter when it’s Green Bay and Chicago.
From a market standpoint, early money has nudged the Packers into a slim favorite role — Packers -1 in most spots — which tells you exactly how tight this game is being priced. That number basically screams coin flip, and it fits the matchup: both teams have paths to winning, and both teams have enough defensive toughness to drag this into the mud if the offenses get sloppy.
The handicap starts with the chess match. Matt LaFleur is one of the best in the league at sequencing plays, setting up shots, and keeping his quarterback in rhythm — especially early. Green Bay is comfortable operating with balance, and they’re disciplined about staying out of obvious passing situations. If the Packers are efficient on first down, it allows them to stay in their bag and keep Chicago guessing.
But we’re leaning toward Chicago’s upside — specifically the playmakers and the play-calling confidence. Ben Johnson’s offense is built to stress a defense horizontally and vertically, and when it’s humming, it forces you to defend every blade of grass. The key storyline here is the bounce-back factor: after the Lions loss, Johnson reportedly tore into the unit, and that kind of accountability tends to show up the next week with sharper execution, fewer mental mistakes, and a more aggressive tone early. Expect Chicago to come out with intent — not feeling the game out, but trying to takeit.
The Bears also have a realistic advantage in “problem creation.” Their skill guys can turn ordinary plays into explosives, and in playoff games, those moments matter more than raw yardage totals. A five-yard completion that becomes 23 can flip field position, flip play-calling, and flip momentum. Green Bay’s defense will have answers, but they’ll have to tackle in space and hold up in high-leverage downs.
On the other side, the Packers have their own edge: experience in these spots and a quarterback who won’t blink late. If this comes down to the final drive — and it often does — Green Bay is comfortable living there. That’s why the spread is where it is.
Still, we’ll side with the Bears’ urgency, home energy, and offensive ceiling in what should be a true rivalry grinder.
Pick: Packers 20 Bears 23
