Dolphins at Steelers

Monday Night Football in Week 15 gives us a classic AFC sweat: Dolphins at Steelers in a game that matters for both playoff races and betting cards. Pittsburgh comes in 7–6, leading the AFC North, while Miami has crawled back from a 1–6 start to 6–7 on the strength of a four-game winning streak and a suddenly nasty defense.

The market has settled with the Steelers as roughly a 3-point home favorite and a total around 42.5, after opening closer to -3.5 with the same number on the over/under. That pricing reflects a few competing forces. On one side is Aaron Rodgers, fresh off his best outing of the season in a road win at Baltimore, paired with DK Metcalf and tight end Pat Freiermuth against a Dolphins secondary that’s improved but still gives up its share of explosives. On the other side is a Steelers offense that’s bottom-tier in rushing production and now has to function without T.J. Watt on defense, putting more pressure on the offense to win shootouts than usual.

Miami’s identity is clearer: run the ball, lean on the defense, hope Tua Tagovailoa avoids the big mistake in the cold. De’Von Achane has been the engine of the offense, clearing 1,000 rushing yards and serving as a major factor in the passing game, and he’s expected to play after a rib scare. The Dolphins have been winning with a ground-heavy approach — Achane and Jaylen Wright just gashed the Jets — while the defense has tightened up, especially with Jalen Ramsey roaming as a full-time safety.

Trend-wise, both teams skew under-friendly. Miami has cashed the under in most of its recent games as the passing attack has remained inconsistent, and Pittsburgh’s home games have often turned into lower-scoring grinders, with their defense and pace dragging totals down.

For bettors, the key questions are straightforward: Do you trust Miami’s run game to travel in the cold and exploit a vulnerable Steelers front without Watt, and do you believe Rodgers can string together strong performances against a pass rush that’s been getting home more often? The answers will determine whether you’re laying the field goal, taking the dog, or isolating this one through props and totals instead of picking a side.

Pick:
Dolphins 16
Steelers 21