Charging
At 25/1, the Chargers are at least worth a serious second look as a championship futures play, because their upside isn’t theoretical — it’s structural. When you get into January, most teams are living on one elite pillar. The Chargers bring the two that matter most: a top-tier quarterback and a coach who can actually win the matchup chess game. If you’re building a playoff portfolio, that combination is exactly what you want backing your risk.
Justin Herbert has been incredible, and he’s earned real MVP consideration based on performance, not hype. He’s elevating the offense, making difficult throws look routine, and—most importantly—he’s been steady when the games tighten up. That’s the trait that travels. Championships often come down to which quarterback stays calm when protection breaks down and the margins get thin, and Herbert has been playing that brand of football.
What makes this even more interesting is the timing. The Chargers have taken punches all year, especially up front. They’ve battled through offensive line injuries, shuffled pieces, and still kept the machine moving. Now they’re playing their best ball of the season, and teams that peak late are the teams you don’t want to draw in the bracket.
The run game is helping too. Omarion Hampton is quietly running the ball as well as anyone right now, giving the offense balance and keeping Herbert from having to be perfect every snap. That matters in cold-weather games and in tight playoff spots where one-dimensional teams get exposed.
Defensively, they’re not flashy, but they’re reliable—and they’ve got star power where it counts. Tuli Tuipuloto and Derwin James set the tone, and this unit has shown it can rise in big moments. In a wide-open AFC, you don’t need a historically great defense—you need one that can steal a possession or two when it matters most.
The one drawback is seeding. If the Chargers land in the 6 or 7 seed, the road gets brutal in hostile environments. But if they control their destiny and make a push in the AFC West—with tough but winnable spots at home against Houston and at Denver—25/1 starts to look less like a lottery ticket and more like mispriced upside.
