Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos
Saturday’s Bills–Broncos matchup is a classic playoff pricing debate: team quality and quarterback trust versus rest, seeding, and home field.
On paper, Denver deserves more respect than the market is giving them. They’re rested, they’ve earned the top seed, and they’re playing at home with a real altitude/home-field edge. That usually buys you more than a near pick number. The Broncos’ path is obvious: play clean, win field position, and make this a four-quarter rock fight where the crowd and the environment turn every third down into a problem for Buffalo.
But the reason Buffalo is still a short favorite comes down to one thing: Josh Allen. If you like the Bills, you’re not really betting a roster right now — you’re betting Allen’s ability to survive chaos and win the game anyway. Buffalo is banged up, especially at receiver, and they aren’t built to run away from good opponents right now. Still, if Allen can find a way to win a rugged playoff game in Jacksonville, it’s not hard to understand why the market is willing to trust him again here. When the margins get thin, the quarterback who can create offense out of nothing becomes the biggest asset on the field.
That said, this game sets up as tight and physical. Denver can absolutely make Buffalo work for every yard. The Bills will likely lean on Allen’s legs, scrambles, and off-script throws to manufacture points. Denver, meanwhile, doesn’t need to be flashy — they need to stay on schedule, avoid turnovers, and put the pressure back on Buffalo’s depleted pass-catching group to win in contested situations.
The key swing factor is whether Buffalo protects the ball and avoids the one disastrous stretch that flips a playoff game. If the Bills play clean, they can grind out a win. If they give Denver short fields, the home team can turn this into a coinflip late — and that’s exactly where the #1 seed wants you.
I’m with the market: Buffalo probably doesn’t blow anyone out, but I’m not stepping in front of them finding a way.
Pick: Bills 23, Broncos 20.
