A Tier Above The Rest
College Basketball Contenders:
Tier 1: Michigan
The Wolverines are the clear No. 1 right now, not because they’re beating up on weak opponents, but because they’ve proven they can win in the hardest places to win. I’ve been on the wrong side of their wins in East Lansing and West Lafayette, and I’m convinced no other team in the country could have gone into those environments and survived — especially with the poise and physicality Michigan showed. Dusty May is coaching at a championship level, and he has the roster with the highest ceiling in the sport. Yaxel Lendeborg gets the headlines, but what makes Michigan different is that they legitimately go eight deep, mixing speed, athleticism, and defensive excellence. They’re the best defensive team in the country, and the scary part is the offense isn’t “good enough” — it’s elite. This is the established team to beat, and everyone else is chasing.
Tier 2: Duke, Arizona, Houston
These are the teams that can realistically beat Michigan four weeks from now in a neutral gym.
Duke gets its shot Saturday in one of the games of the year. From a betting perspective, a Blue Devils win wouldn’t change my opinion of Michigan — it would just create value again. Duke revolves around Cameron Boozer, but if they’re going to win a title, it can’t be a one-man show. They’ll need supporting shot-making and a clean turnover night to win a marquee game in March.
Arizona is balanced and athletic across its starting five, and they’ve been tested repeatedly in the loaded Big 12. The question is whether the bench can consistently match the other contenders’ depth — and the answer is probably yes, because they’ve already lived in high-leverage games all season.
Houston is Houston: every possession is a fight, and Kelvin Sampson’s teams don’t flinch. With guards like Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp, they have the kind of backcourt that can carry a team through the tournament when the bracket turns into chaos.
Tier 3: Illinois, Florida, Kansas, Iowa State
Probably not happening this year — but there’s enough talent, coaching, and upside to keep them on the radar if things break perfectly.
