National Championship - South Carolina -3.5 vs. UCLA
South Carolina deserves every bit of the respect it is getting heading into the women’s national championship game. Dawn Staley is a legend, and by résumé alone you have to give the coaching edge to the Gamecocks. They looked like absolute world-beaters Friday night, dismantling previously unbeaten UConn and reminding everyone why they are once again playing for a title. That kind of performance gets everybody’s attention, and it should.
But now South Carolina runs into a UCLA team that, to me, is more complete.
The Bruins are senior-driven, experienced, and connected. They did not play a pretty semifinal, but they survived exactly the kind of ugly, physical grinder that can prepare a team for a championship setting. This is a mature team, and that matters on a stage like this. UCLA has been building toward this moment, and there is a real sense that this is its year. The Bruins are together, motivated, and talented enough to finish the job.
Kiki Rice is the key for me. South Carolina’s perimeter pressure is relentless, and the whole game may come down to whether UCLA can stay organized against it. Rice has to lead disciplined, patient sets and keep the Bruins from getting sped up. That is the concern, because UCLA did turn it over 23 times against Texas, and you cannot casually hand extra possessions to South Carolina and expect to survive. But there is also reason to trust this group. These seniors have been through too much, and the Bruins have too many shot-makers to assume they will unravel when the pressure gets highest.
South Carolina is favored by 3.5, and that makes sense given what we just watched Friday night. But I think the number is shading a little too heavily toward the fresh memory of South Carolina crushing UConn. UCLA has enough size, enough patience, enough leadership, and enough offensive balance to make this a very different kind of game. South Carolina is hotter right now. UCLA is steadier.
And in a title game, I trust steadier.
I’m on UCLA moneyline at +160.
