Michigan -1.5 vs. Arizona

This is the game of the tournament, the matchup many people have been waiting on for months because Arizona and Michigan have looked like the two best teams in college basketball for a long time.

In a lot of ways, these teams mirror each other. Both are physical. Both are dominant on the interior. Both feature future NBA talent and elite size around the basket. This feels like a game that will be decided in the paint, on the glass, and in the ability of each side to handle 40 minutes of relentless pressure.

There are two slight edges for Arizona.

First, the Wildcats do not live and die by the three-point shot the way Michigan can. The Wolverines are dangerous from deep, but that also creates vulnerability in a game like this. If Arizona’s physicality forces Michigan into rushed or ill-advised threes, the entire flow of the game changes. And if Michigan is down around 30 percent from long range, the Wolverines could be in real trouble.

Second, this may be the one matchup in the entire tournament where Michigan missing backup point guard L.J. Cason really matters. Against Arizona’s length, athleticism, and high-intensity defense, 40 minutes can feel very long. In a game this demanding, having one more reliable ball handler could be the difference between staying composed and getting worn down.

But Michigan has the biggest advantage of all, and it sits on the sideline.

Tommy Lloyd is an excellent coach, and none of this is meant as criticism. But Dusty May is operating at a different level right now. The whole country may not fully understand it yet, but he is coaching like an all-time great. The pieces on the board are similar. The talent is comparable. The physicality is equal. The difference may be the man moving the pieces. May is a master motivator. He is elite at getting each guy to buy in and produce at the highest level.

That is why this matchup feels so fascinating. Arizona has real arguments in its favor, and they are not small ones. But when the teams are this even, the coaching edge becomes enormous.

And in that category, Michigan has the master.