Michigan, Duke, and Arizona Are Tier 1

It is hard to believe we are only three years removed from the 2023 Final Four that featured San Diego State, Florida Atlantic, Miami, and UConn. That tournament felt like proof that college basketball still belonged to chaos. It felt like a reminder that the sport could still produce a wild and unpredictable path to the championship. This year feels different.

The big boys are back in control, and they look like heavy favorites to ultimately cut down the nets.

Realistically, it is difficult to see anyone outside of Duke, Michigan, and Arizona winning six games in the Big Dance. Those three feel like the clearest top-tier teams in the country, with the kind of talent, depth, shot-making, and overall control that tends to matter most once the tournament gets deep. When the pressure rises and every possession matters, teams with elite offensive execution and multiple ways to score usually separate themselves.

Houston and Florida absolutely need to be respected. Both are good enough to make a serious run, and both have shown they belong in the national championship conversation. But ultimately, their offensive execution falls just a little short of the big three. Over the course of six games, that matters. It is one thing to defend, rebound, and grind. It is another to consistently generate enough offense when the game slows down and every team left is elite.

That is why this tournament feels a little different from the version of March Madness people romanticize. The underdog story is always possible, and that is still part of what makes the event great. You should absolutely enjoy the tournament and pull for the Cinderella if that is your thing. But the reality of this college basketball landscape is that the favorites suddenly have a bigger edge than ever.

The sport has changed. The gap between the true elite and everyone else looks wider. Three years ago, chaos ruled. This year, power looks far more likely to win out.