Steelers at Lions

Sunday in Detroit sets up as one of those high-leverage late-season games where the betting number tells you what the league thinks—and what the market is daring you to believe. On paper, the Lions deserve to be favored at home, and the line reflects that with Detroit laying close to a touchdown and a total sitting in the low 50s. Detroit’s profile is simple: they can score on anyone, they’re at their best when they dictate with the run game, and at Ford Field they tend to play fast and confident.

But the Steelers are exactly the type of opponent that can turn a “comfortable favorite” into a sweat. Pittsburgh’s identity under Mike Tomlin is to drag teams into a street fight—shorten the game, stay disciplined, and hang around long enough for one turnover or one late stop to flip the script. That formula becomes even more interesting with a veteran quarterback who can still win in the short and intermediate game, especially when protected and kept on schedule.

For Detroit, the obvious edge is on offense. The Lions’ two-headed rushing attack is the centerpiece, and this matchup invites them to lean into it. Pittsburgh has shown real vulnerability against the run recently, and if Detroit is consistently getting positive yards on early downs, it opens the whole play-action menu and forces the Steelers to tackle for four quarters. That’s how favorites cover big numbers—by keeping the offense on schedule and cashing in touchdowns instead of field goals.

The Steelers’ path is narrower, but it’s there. If Pittsburgh can survive the early wave, avoid giving Detroit short fields, and steal a possession with a takeaway, the pressure shifts to the favorite. Detroit’s pass defense has been leaky enough to allow volume production, and that creates a scenario where Pittsburgh doesn’t need to “dominate”—they just need to hit enough efficient throws to keep pace and force a one-score game late.

The total tells you points are expected, but the real handicap is whether this becomes Detroit’s preferred track meet or Pittsburgh’s preferred grind. We see the Lions landing plenty of big moments, but we also see the Steelers’ experience and situational toughness showing up in the fourth quarter.

This is the type of spot where Tomlin’s team hangs around, the favorite tightens up, and the underdog finishes.

Prediction: Steelers 28, Lions 27.