Patriots at Ravens

The market has Baltimore laying around 3 points in prime time, and the handicap comes down to which unit controls the trenches: Ravens pressure vs. Patriots balance.

New England’s case starts with Drake Maye. Even after a rougher outing last week, he’s been the engine of an 11-win team, and the Patriots have traveled like pros all season. The matchup problem is that Maye has taken a ton of hits, and Baltimore’s front can turn a game quickly if it gets home early — Dre’Mont Jones, Tavius Robinson, and Travis Jonesare the kind of group that can flip field position and force mistakes.

Baltimore’s offensive script is clear: Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry stress your edges, and the Patriots’ run defense has been more vulnerable since losing Milton Williams up front. If Henry is living in 2nd-and-5, the Ravens can dictate tempo and keep Maye watching from the sideline.

The counter is New England’s own ground game. The Rhamondre Stevenson / TreVeyon Henderson tandem gives them a way to stay on schedule, protect Maye, and shorten the game — which is exactly what you want when you’re grabbing points.

Betting lens: if you trust Baltimore’s pass rush to win early downs and create a couple drive-killing plays, laying short chalk makes sense. If you trust Maye’s poise and New England’s road composure, the value is in taking the points in what profiles as a one-score game.