Packers at Bears

Saturday night at Soldier Field brings the kind of NFC North game bettors love: high stakes, tight numbers, and a real “one possession decides everything” vibe. Chicago enters in first place at 10-4, with Green Bay right behind at 9-4-1, and the winner takes control of the division with only two games left. It’s also a quick-turn rematch—Green Bay won 28-21 at Lambeau on Dec. 7, a game Chicago felt it let slip late.

From a gambling perspective, the market is telling you this is basically a coin flip: Packers -1.5 with a 46.5 total. That’s a classic rivalry profile—expect intensity, conservative stretches, and a handful of explosive plays that swing the spread.

The first meeting offered the blueprint for both sides. Chicago rallied back to tie it, but the difference came down to two things: Green Bay’s chunk plays and Chicago’s failure to finish. The Bears allowed Jordan Love to hit multiple deep touchdown strikes, then came up empty on a late red-zone chance when Caleb Williams’ fourth-down throw was intercepted in the end zone. If you’re backing Chicago this time, you’re betting on cleaner execution—starting faster, eliminating explosives, and turning drives into points instead of “almost.”

The biggest variable is Green Bay’s health on defense. The loss of Micah Parsons changes the pressure profile, and the injury list around Green Bay’s starters creates a real question: can the Packers consistently disrupt Williams the way they did in key moments the first time? Chicago also has its own concerns—if key weapons are limited, it raises the bar on Williams to create offense in tighter windows.

This is also where Soldier Field matters. In a short spread game, a couple false starts, a burned timeout, or one stalled drive can flip the math. And with the total in the mid-40s, red-zone touchdowns versus field goals is everything.

We see another grind where both teams trade control, but Chicago’s urgency and home environment provide just enough late edge.

Prediction: Packers 23, Bears 24.