NFL: Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles

Lions–Eagles in November at the Linc is the exact kind of game that scrambles clean numbers. Our power ratings and matchup indicators say edge: Detroit—they’re better on early-down efficiency, more multiple on offense, and a bit more trustworthy right now. But this isn’t a dome game; it’s outside on a breezy November night in Philadelphia, the exact set of conditions we’ve used to bet against the Lions for decades.

Layer on top that Dan Campbell is calling plays. It worked last week and fits the identity—aggressive, downhill, go-for-it mentality—but there’s a “fatal” feel when the same aggression runs into a hostile road environment, swirling wind, and a defense built to win short fields. One ill-timed fourth-down try or deep shot into the breeze can flip everything.

Still, this profiles as a one-score grind. Both teams can run it, both can generate pressure without blitzing, and both have kickers who’ll matter late. The most likely script has this coming down to a final drive: last-second field goal or overtime. In that spot, we’re giving the gut-check advantage to Detroit. Lean Lions in a coin-flip that their toughness and current form can tilt at the wire.

Pick;
Lions 23
Eagles 20