NCAAF: Tulane at Ole Miss
This is the kind of matchup that reminds you why the expanded playoff is a win for the sport: a blue-blood SEC atmosphere hosting a red-hot Group-of-Five champion that believes it can punch above its weight. No. 6 Ole Miss welcomes No. 11 Tulane to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium for a first-round College Football Playoff game that doubles as a rematch — and Oxford is going to be electric from breakfast through the final whistle.
The headline is simple: these teams already played, and the first meeting wasn’t competitive. Ole Miss handled Tulane 45-10 earlier this season, a game where the Rebels controlled the line of scrimmage, created chunk plays, and turned it into a mismatch by halftime. That result is the foundation of the market’s confidence — oddsmakers have treated Ole Miss like a multi-score favorite all week — but it doesn’t fully capture how much Tulane has grown since September. The Green Wave arrive as an 11-win conference champion with a staff and roster that have spent months building toward this exact moment.
What makes Ole Miss so dangerous is that they can win in multiple scripts. Offensively, the Rebels have been one of the most productive units in the country, pairing big-time passing volume with efficiency and keeping pressure off the quarterback by limiting negative plays. Trinidad Chambliss has been the catalyst since taking over early in the season, and the run game has real teeth behind Kewan Lacy — a touchdown machine who changes how defenses have to fit gaps near the goal line. If Ole Miss gets comfortable early, they can turn this into a track meet and force Tulane to chase points.
Defensively, the Rebels aren’t built on gimmicks. They’re built on making life miserable for passing games — especially as the game wears on. Ole Miss has been strong against the pass, has shown an ability to tighten the screws after halftime, and has enough front-seven disruption to create long-yardage situations where the playbook shrinks for the opponent. In a playoff setting, that “second-half clamp” matters, because underdogs usually need a clean third quarter to hang around.
Tulane’s case starts with its quarterback. Jake Retzlaff is a legitimate dual-threat who can stress a defense horizontally with his legs and vertically when protection holds up. He’s been productive both as a passer and as a runner, and his rushing touchdown production is a real red-zone weapon. Tulane’s best path is to survive the opening wave, steal an early score (they’re more than capable), and then turn the game into a possession battle — longer drives, fewer total snaps, and a lot of “make them earn it” football. If Tulane can stay out of third-and-long and avoid gifting Ole Miss short fields, it can keep the game respectable for a while.
But that’s the problem: “for a while” might be the ceiling. The matchup still leans heavily toward Ole Miss because the Rebels can win the down-to-down efficiency battle and then separate with explosive plays. Tulane’s defense has to cover in space without busts, tackle like its hair is on fire, and hold up against an offense that can score in two minutes or grind you down for eight. Asking for all three — in Oxford, in a playoff debut, against a top-tier SEC attack — is a brutal assignment.
There’s also the human element. This is Oxford’s first-ever College Football Playoff game, and it’s not just a football event — it’s an all-day festival. The Grove will be packed. The noise will be real. The emotion will be high. And if Ole Miss lands the first big punch, the building can feel like it’s leaning downhill on the visitor.
Prediction: Ole Miss 41, Tulane 13
