Hawaii Bowl: California vs. Hawaii
California and Hawaiʻi meet on Christmas Eve in the 2025 Sheraton Hawaiʻi Bowl at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, a true home setting for the Rainbow Warriors and a rare bowl spot where crowd, travel, and comfort matter as much as scheme. Hawaiʻi is a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 52.5, which fits a matchup that can swing between long, methodical drives and sudden chunk plays.
The headliner for Cal is quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who gives the Bears a steady down-to-down baseline and can keep the offense functional even when the run game stalls. The Bears will look to lean on timing throws and efficiency, using Jacob De Jesus as a high-volume target who can keep Cal on schedule with quick-game completions, while Kendrick Raphael provides balance and red-zone punch out of the backfield. The key for Cal is avoiding negative plays and letting Sagapolutele turn third-and-medium into manageable conversions instead of forcing low-percentage shots.
Hawaiʻi counters with a confident offense led by Micah Alejado, who can stress defenses vertically and still extend plays when protection breaks down. The big-play connection to watch is Alejado to Jackson Harris, and if Cal over-tilts coverage toward Harris, Pofele Ashlock becomes the kind of “move-the-chains” option that can quietly stack first downs and keep drives alive. Hawaiʻi’s best version of this game is built around composure: stay ahead of the chains, keep Cal’s defense on the field, and use the home environment to tilt the late downs.
From a betting lens, the most interesting chess match is Cal’s passing attack testing Hawaiʻi’s secondary over four quarters, while Hawaiʻi tries to create separation with efficiency and a few explosives at home. With the spread tight at Hawaiʻi -1.5 and the total at 52.5, a one-score game deep into the fourth quarter is the cleanest script—and a handful of red-zone snaps will likely decide whether this stays under control or pushes into the mid-to-high 50s.
Prediction: California 26, Hawaiʻi 31.
