Frisco Bowl: UNLV vs. Ohio
UNLV draws the headline in the Frisco Bowl because the Rebels have the cleaner résumé and the more explosive offense, but the betting conversation gets more interesting once you factor in two things: Ohio’s ability to shorten the game on the ground, and the turbulence surrounding the Bobcats this week.
Ohio enters this game without head coach Brian Smith. Smith was terminated after allegedly violating the terms of his employment agreement by engaging in serious professional misconduct and participating in activities that reflect unfavorably on the school, with reports pointing toward alcohol consumption in his office and relationships with students. Whether every detail is accurate or not, it’s a real variable for bettors. Bowl prep is all about structure, routine, and focus, and coaching upheaval can show up in organization, penalties, and late-game decision-making.
On the field, Ohio’s clearest path is straightforward: run the ball, control the clock, and keep UNLV’s offense on the sideline. The engine is Sieh Bangura, the MAC’s leading rusher with 1,243 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns in 2025. If Bangura is rolling early, Ohio can dictate tempo, create manageable third downs, and keep the game inside the number into the fourth quarter.
The matchup wrinkle is this: Ohio’s passing game hasn’t been a strength this season, with 2,251 passing yards in 12 games (187.6 per game), but UNLV’s pass defense has been vulnerable, allowing 249.3 passing yards per game. That’s the one soft spot Ohio can probe if UNLV commits extra bodies to stopping Bangura. Ohio doesn’t need to suddenly become a downfield passing team; it just needs timely completions off play-action, easy throws to keep drives alive, and one or two chunk plays when UNLV gets too aggressive.
For UNLV, the advantage is ceiling. The Rebels can score in a hurry and flip game state quickly, and when UNLV plays from in front it forces Ohio into a pace and pass volume it doesn’t prefer. That’s why the market leans Rebels: they’re simply the side more capable of creating separation.
From a betting perspective, UNLV being a 6.5-point favorite asks you to decide whether Ohio’s run-first script and bowl volatility can keep it within one possession. The total sitting at 64.5 is also telling; the market expects points, but Ohio’s best version of this game is slower and more physical, which can keep the scoring in check if the Bobcats avoid mistakes and stay organized despite the coaching situation.
Prediction: UNLV 30, Ohio 27.
