Chargers at Cowboys

The market is telling you this one should be tight: Dallas is a small home favorite (Cowboys -1.5) with the total sitting in the high 40s, and that makes sense given the matchup. The Cowboys’ passing game has carried them all season, and when they’re humming they can turn any drive into points in a hurry. The flip side is that Dallas has been living dangerously on defense—especially through the air—turning too many weeks into track meets where the offense has to be perfect just to survive.

That’s where this matchup gets interesting for bettors, because the Chargers are built to handle exactly this kind of game. Jim Harbaugh has Los Angeles playing disciplined, situational football, and Justin Herbert gives them the best “late-game closer” on the field. Even with the injury list showing up, the Chargers’ identity travels: keep your structure, avoid the free giveaways, and make the opponent earn it snap-by-snap. Defensively, the Chargers have been strong enough to keep explosive offenses from completely dictating terms, and that matters against a Dallas team that wants to win with tempo and chunk plays.

From a totals perspective, Dallas games have leaned Over more often than not, but this is the type of opponent that can force longer drives and shorten the game. The key betting question is whether Dallas can protect well enough to let Prescott consistently hit downfield throws, or if the Chargers can muddy the reads, get them behind the sticks, and turn a few possessions into field goals instead of touchdowns.

We’re buying the Harbaugh-Herbert combo in these coin-flip games down the stretch. The AFC feels wide open, and this is the kind of road spot that shows whether you’re real. Take the points if you can get them, and don’t be afraid to sprinkle the moneyline.

Prediction: Chargers 26, Cowboys 24.