All Eyes on Tennessee 7

Tennessee’s 7th congressional district special election on December 2 is the kind of race that should be a snoozer but suddenly isn’t. This is a deeply Republican seat that Mark Green won by 22 points in 2024, and GOP nominee Matt Van Epps remains the overwhelming favorite. But prediction markets have quietly nudged Democratic nominee After Behn up to around 12%, and that small move is getting outsized attention in D.C.

Two forces are driving the intrigue. First, Democrats have been consistently overperforming in recent off-year and special elections. Second, Marjorie Taylor Greene’s resignation — paired with rumors that other Republicans could follow — has added a sense of chaos and vulnerability around the House GOP brand. Donors on both sides are treating this race as a proxy test and money is pouring in at levels that don’t match the district’s traditional fundamentals.

Van Epps is still heavily favored to hold the seat; a true upset would be shocking. But the margin matters. If Behn can drag this race into single digits in a district this red, it will register as a partisan tremor in Washington and fuel a fresh round of panic inside the Republican conference.