49ers at Colts

Monday night in Indianapolis is a clean “trust the roster vs. trust the script” handicap. The market has San Francisco laying close to a touchdown (roughly 5.5 to 6) with a total around 46.5, which is basically the books saying: the 49ers are the better team, but the Colts can keep it respectable if they keep the game simple and avoid the mistake avalanche.

That’s the problem for Indy — “simple” is hard when your quarterback is Philip Rivers coming out of retirement at 44. He can still manage a game for stretches, but he simply can’t be trusted to cover numbers when the opponent has time to study the film and force him to do more than distribute. The Colts nearly stole one against Seattle, but now the 49ers have that tape. They’ll know exactly what Indy tried to protect, what throws Rivers was comfortable attempting, and where the stress points live when you force him into longer down-and-distance situations.

The Colts’ best path is obvious: run it, stay ahead of the chains, keep Rivers clean, and turn the night into a field-position grind. If they can get to third-and-short consistently and keep the pass rush honest, they can hang around. But that formula shrinks fast if San Francisco jumps out early or if the Colts fall behind by two scores. Once Rivers has to chase, the “don’t turn it over” plan becomes wishful thinking.

San Francisco, meanwhile, has the more complete profile. They’re built to travel, they’re built to control pace, and they’re built to win without needing perfection. Expect Kyle Shanahan to lean on balance, make the Colts tackle for four quarters, and press the exact area Indy doesn’t want tested: Rivers’ ability to push and convert in obvious passing moments. If the 49ers’ defense can turn a couple Colts drives into punts and force Rivers into hurry-up, the game starts tilting hard toward the favorite.

Bottom line: Indianapolis can compete early, but the longer this goes, the more it asks Rivers to be something he isn’t at this stage.

Prediction: 49ers 27, Colts 17.