NCAAF: Alabama at Oklahoma

Alabama–Oklahoma is the perfect way to open the new-look College Football Playoff: two bluebloods, a true road game, and a betting market that says “coin flip.” No. 9 Alabama (10–3) travels to Norman to face No. 8 Oklahoma (10–2) in a rematch of their November meeting, a 23–21 Sooners win in Tuscaloosa. In that game Oklahoma lived off Alabama mistakes, turning a pick-six and a pair of fumbles into 17 points despite being outgained by nearly 200 yards. That turnover script is the starting point for anyone handicapping Round 2.

The current line has Alabama around -1.5 with a total of 40.5, the lowest number on the CFP board. That fits both teams’ profiles. The Crimson Tide offense, led by Ty Simpson, has put up big yardage at times but has struggled badly against top defenses and just got smothered by Georgia in the SEC title game. The run game has been inconsistent behind a beat-up offensive line, so Alabama often lives in second-and-long and third-and-long, exactly where mistakes show up.

Oklahoma’s defense is the strength of its team and one of the most important angles for bettors. The Sooners sit near the top of the country against the run, hold opponents under 80 rushing yards per game, and are built to create havoc: tackles for loss, pressure, and takeaways. That style is tailor-made to bother a Tide offense that has been turnover-prone in big spots. Offensively, OU has been more workmanlike than explosive, with John Mateer and a deep backfield doing just enough while the defense and special teams carry the load.

Totals players will notice the trend: the under has been cashing in games involving both teams, with Alabama playing a string of grinders and Oklahoma leaning on its defense all season. A slow, physical game with field position, red-zone decisions, and the turnover battle front and center is the most likely script.

The winner gets No. 1 Indiana in the Rose Bowl, but for bettors the focus is narrower: Can Alabama finally protect the ball and run it against this OU front, or does Oklahoma’s defense again dictate terms and drag this matchup under a very low total?

Pick:
Alabama 20
Oklahoma 13