not betting against this guy

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has that cold-blooded poise you bet on in October. After a great regular season and a rock-solid Game 2, he’s the exact kind of starter who quiets noise, commands the zone, and stacks zeroes while the lineup finds its swing. Toronto holds the leverage up 3–2, but the market at Dodgers -140 makes sense with Yamamoto on the bump: elite strike-throwing, a splitter that vanishes late, and the temperament to navigate traffic without blinking. The expectation isn’t just “good”—it’s efficient and deep into the game, which preserves the high-leverage bullpen bullets for the eighth and ninth.

Tactically, this sets up a clean pregame position on L.A. and an in-game outsized edge. If Yamamoto’s pitch count climbs or his splitter flattens in the middle innings, you’ll likely get an appealing live number on Toronto to counter or scalp. Start with the Dodgers behind Yamamoto; stay nimble if the texture changes.